As Dorian causes conditions to deteriorate in the Windward Islands tonight, concern is increasing across the Southeast about potential impacts from this system over Labor Day weekend. While confidence is low about that part of the forecast, it does appear some direct impacts will occur in Puerto Rico midweek. They are especially vulnerable as recovery from Hurricane Maria continues. As of this post, a Tropical Storm Watch was in effect there.
One of the big questions regarding Dorian’s future will be whether it tracks over the Dominican Republic or between there and Puerto Rico (through the Mona Passage). If the center of circulation stays over the Dominican Republic for an extended period, it would likely cause this small system to fall apart. On the other hand, a track staying primarily over water should allow this system to stay together and potentially be near or at hurricane strength as it approaches Florida. Direct impacts could occur across North Florida and/or South Georgia during Labor Day weekend. At the present time, specifics cannot be nailed down. However, make sure your hurricane plan is up to date: nhc.noaa.gov/prepare/ready.php.
This situation needs to be monitored very closely. Frequent updates will be provided on social media. As soon as each advisory and forecast track is released by the National Hurricane Center, it will be available at: cloudsweather.com/tropics. In addition, tune in around 11:30PM for a live video update on Facebook.